Polymarket
| # | Market / Question | Yes % | Activity |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Netanyahu out by March 31? | 2% | $9,945,096/day |
| 2 | Will Dialogue for Hungary (Párbeszéd) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | <1% | $3,665,069/day |
| 3 | Kennesaw State Owls vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs | <1% | $3,189,020/day |
| 4 | Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | 3% | $2,911,744/day |
| 5 | Hofstra Pride vs. Alabama Crimson Tide | 14% | $2,183,709/day |
| 6 | 76ers vs. Kings | 100% | $2,139,060/day |
| 7 | Saint Louis Billikens vs. Georgia Bulldogs | 100% | $2,092,609/day |
| 8 | Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | <1% | $1,671,745/day |
| 9 | Flyers vs. Kings | 100% | $1,419,049/day |
| 10 | Cavaliers vs. Bulls | 100% | $1,376,242/day |
Manifold
| # | Market / Question | Yes % | Activity |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | [READ DESCRIPTION] Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? [Polymarket] | 49% | M$100 |
| 2 | Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass? | 32% | M$1,100 |
| 3 | Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin? | 94% | M$10,000 |
| 4 | In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt? | 66% | M$1,640 |
| 5 | Will Trump finish his second term? | 77% | M$100,000 |
| 6 | In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt? | 30% | M$20,916 |
| 7 | How old will Bryan Johnson be when he dies of natural causes? | 60% | M$4,775 |
| 8 | Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API? | 67% | M$100,000 |
| 9 | Donut Battery is essentially Lithium free? | 28% | M$100,000 |
| 10 | Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 22% | M$100,001 |
PredictIt
| # | Market / Question | Yes % | Activity |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | How many House seats will Republicans win in the 2026 midterm election? [192 or fewer] | 38% | 11 contracts |
| 2 | Who will win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? [JD Vance] | 39% | 13 contracts |
| 3 | Who will win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? [Gavin Newsom] | 27% | 17 contracts |
| 4 | Which party will control the Senate after the 2026 election? [Republican] | 53% | 2 contracts |
| 5 | Which party will win the 2026 US Senate election in Georgia? [Democratic] | 82% | 2 contracts |
| 6 | Which party will win the House in the 2026 election? [Democratic] | 84% | 2 contracts |
| 7 | Which party will win the 2026 US Senate election in Michigan? [Democratic] | 79% | 2 contracts |
| 8 | Which party will win the 2026 US Senate election in Maine? [Democratic] | 70% | 2 contracts |
| 9 | Which party will win the 2026 US Senate election in North Carolina? [Democratic] | 81% | 2 contracts |
| 10 | Which party will win the 2026 US Senate election in New Hampshire? [Democratic] | 85% | 2 contracts |