Polymarket
# Market / Question Yes % Activity
1 Netanyahu out by March 31? 2% $9,945,096/day
2 Will Dialogue for Hungary (Párbeszéd) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? <1% $3,665,069/day
3 Kennesaw State Owls vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs <1% $3,189,020/day
4 Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? 3% $2,911,744/day
5 Hofstra Pride vs. Alabama Crimson Tide 14% $2,183,709/day
6 76ers vs. Kings 100% $2,139,060/day
7 Saint Louis Billikens vs. Georgia Bulldogs 100% $2,092,609/day
8 Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? <1% $1,671,745/day
9 Flyers vs. Kings 100% $1,419,049/day
10 Cavaliers vs. Bulls 100% $1,376,242/day
Manifold
# Market / Question Yes % Activity
1 [READ DESCRIPTION] Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? [Polymarket] 49% M$100
2 Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass? 32% M$1,100
3 Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin? 94% M$10,000
4 In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt? 66% M$1,640
5 Will Trump finish his second term? 77% M$100,000
6 In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt? 30% M$20,916
7 How old will Bryan Johnson be when he dies of natural causes? 60% M$4,775
8 Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API? 67% M$100,000
9 Donut Battery is essentially Lithium free? 28% M$100,000
10 Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? 22% M$100,001
PredictIt
# Market / Question Yes % Activity
1 How many House seats will Republicans win in the 2026 midterm election? [192 or fewer] 38% 11 contracts
2 Who will win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? [JD Vance] 39% 13 contracts
3 Who will win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? [Gavin Newsom] 27% 17 contracts
4 Which party will control the Senate after the 2026 election? [Republican] 53% 2 contracts
5 Which party will win the 2026 US Senate election in Georgia? [Democratic] 82% 2 contracts
6 Which party will win the House in the 2026 election? [Democratic] 84% 2 contracts
7 Which party will win the 2026 US Senate election in Michigan? [Democratic] 79% 2 contracts
8 Which party will win the 2026 US Senate election in Maine? [Democratic] 70% 2 contracts
9 Which party will win the 2026 US Senate election in North Carolina? [Democratic] 81% 2 contracts
10 Which party will win the 2026 US Senate election in New Hampshire? [Democratic] 85% 2 contracts